CLUE-S模型对村镇土地利用变化的模拟与精度评价

利用航片、IKONOS和Quickbird影像得到研究区3期（1991、2001和2009年）土地利用历史数据，运用CLUE S模型，基于1991、2001年的土地利用数据对2009年土地利用格局进行模拟预测，并将模拟结果与2009年真实土地利用数据进行比较。类型水平上，选择ROC曲线统计和偏离度指数分别对各地类的Logistic回归拟合精度和CLUE S模型模拟精度进行评价；景观水平上，采用景观指数和Kappa指数系列方法，从综合预测能力、景观格局、数量和空间位置等方面对CLUE S模型的模拟精度进行全面评估。结果表明:①CLUE S模型对各土地利用类型的模拟精度均较高，各地类的Logistic回归的拟合精度随着模拟分辨率的提高而逐渐增加；②随着模拟时间的缩短，CLUE S模型对整体景观格局的模拟精度提高；③该模型对土地利用数量的模拟精度明显优于其对空间位置的模拟精度。总体而言，CLUE S模型在村镇尺度的模拟效果良好，预测精度较高，但在空间位置和景观格局精度方面还有待提高     

陕南地区清代霜雪灾害及分形特征研究

通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16～18 a,7～8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。     

Seasonal fluctuations of DDTs and PCBs in zooplankton and fish of Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy)

Concentrations of DDTs and PCBs were determined in the zooplankton and in three different fish species (shad, whitefish and roach) collected seasonally during 2009 and 2010 in three sites in Lake Maggiore, a south-alpine lake that has been contaminated by DDT since 1996. As previously observed in 2008, even during 2009 DDTs concentrations were higher in zooplankton than in fish, probably due to the very unstable situation of the lake still influenced by local inputs. The situation changed in 2010, when all DDT compounds increased in fish to levels much higher than those measured in zooplankton. Biomagnification was statistically demonstrated for pp′DDE in all the three fish species, indicating a probable signal of recovery of the lake.Although with respect to total PCBs we observed that the contamination levels varied across time periods and across fish species, biomagnification was evident from zooplankton to fish both in 2009 and in 2010. As concern individual PCBs, biomagnification from zooplankton to all three fish species was significant for PCB 153 and PCB 138.     

苏南某市河流水质参数时空变异性研究

以苏南某市区320km2内的河流为研究对象,基于对高锰酸盐指数、NH3-N、TP3个主要水质参数的监测,应用地质统计学的变差函数球状模型和Kriging插值法,对河流有机污染指标、富营养化指标进行了空间插值,用以揭示其时空分布特征及变化趋势,并绘制了时空分布等值线图。结果表明,受不同区域污染物来源的差异、不同河道自身条件的差异和不同水期水生植物、入流水量、河水流动性的差异等因素的影响,研究区河流水质参数呈现出不同的时空变异特征;各水质参数污染均相当严重,尤以富营养化指标氮磷最为显著。     

旅游安全信息管理问题与对策研究

旅游安全是旅游业的生命线,旅游安全信息是旅游安全管理的基础。加强旅游安全信息管理,对提高旅游安全管理水平,促进旅游业的健康发展和提升社会管理水平等具有重要意义。界定了旅游安全信息管理的涵义,总结了加强旅游安全信息管理的意义,结合我国旅游安全信息管理的现状及旅游业发展的趋势,分析了当前我国旅游安全信息管理方面存在的问题,探讨改进我国旅游安全信息管理的对策,为全面提高我国旅游安全管理水平和旅游业的健康发展服务。     

旅游产业园：理论模式与实践发展

旅游产业集群式发展成为新的发展趋势和现实要求,但目前国内仍存在多种发展模式。笔者认为,旅游产业园应特别突出旅游产业特色,既要考虑传统的观光度假功能,更应考虑上下游的旅游装备研发制造、旅游商品研发生产、旅游产品营销推广等各个环节。以鄱阳湖生态旅游产业园为例,分析了该产业发展模式的建设背景、战略意义、发展定位和建设内容。     

人工湿地系统处理校园污水的工艺设计

介绍了广东某大学校园学生公寓淋浴洗衣污水的人工湿地处理工艺。本工程具有工程投资少,处理费用低,运行平稳,处理效果好,美化景观等的特点。处理后的中水可回收作为湖水的补充用水。本工程投入使用后,可获得较大的经济效益和社会效益。     

Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves1

Sass, Christopher K. and Tim D. Keane, 2012. Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 774‐787. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00644.x Abstract: Sedimentation of waterways and reservoirs directly related to streambank erosion threatens freshwater supply. This study sought to provide a tool that accurately predicts annual streambank erosion rates in NE Kansas. Rosgen (2001, 2006) methods were employed and 18 study banks were measured and monitored from 2007 through 2010 (May‐June). Bank profiles were overlaid to calculate toe pin area change due to erosional processes. Streambanks experienced varied erosion rates from similar Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI)‐Near Bank Stress (NBS) combinations producing R² values of 0.77 High‐Very High BEHI rating and 0.75 Moderate BEHI rating regarding predictive erosion curves for NE Kansas. Moderate ratings demonstrated higher erosion rates than High‐Very High ratings and BEHI trend lines intersected at lower NBS ratings, suggesting a discrepancy in the fit of the model to conditions in the NE Kansas region. BEHI model factors were evaluated and assessed for additional influences exerted in the region. Woody vegetation adjacent to the stream seemed to provide the most variation in erosion rates. This study’s findings allowed us to calibrate and modify the existing BEHI model according to woody vegetation occurrence levels along streambanks with high clay content. Modifications regarding vegetation occurrence of the BEHI model was completed and the results of these modifications generated new curves resulting in R² values of 0.84 High‐Very High BEHI and 0.88 Moderate BEHI ratings.     

河南省节能环保产业发展对策研究

节能环保产业是跨行业、涵盖面宽的综合性产业,其产业关联度大,带动力强,是国家确定的战略性新兴产业。河南省是新兴工业大省和资源消费大省,经济发展与资源环境承载力之间的矛盾日益突出,发展节能环保产业势在必行。本文分析了河南省节能环保产业的发展现状和存在的突出问题,提出了发展河南省节能环保产业的重点领域和推进路径。     

Is Urban Stream Restoration Worth It?1

Kenney, Melissa A., Peter R. Wilcock, Benjamin F. Hobbs, Nicholas E. Flores, and Daniela C. Martínez, 2012. Is Urban Stream Restoration Worth It? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 603-615. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00635.x Abstract: Public investment in urban stream restoration is growing, yet little has been done to quantify whether its benefits outweigh its cost. The most common drivers of urban stream projects are water quality improvement and infrastructure protection, although recreational and aesthetic benefits are often important community goals. We use standard economic methods to show that these contributions of restoration can be quantified and compared to costs. The approach is demonstrated with a case study in Baltimore, Maryland, a city with a legal mandate to reduce its pollutant load. Typical urban stream restoration costs of US$500-1,200 per foot are larger than the cost of the least expensive alternatives for management of nitrogen loads from stormwater (here, detention ponds, equivalent to $30-120 per foot of restored stream) and for protecting infrastructure (rip-rap armoring of streambanks, at $0-120 per foot). However, the higher costs of stream restoration can in some cases be justified by its aesthetic and recreational benefits, valued using a contingent valuation survey at $560-1,100 per foot. We do not intend to provide a definitive answer regarding the worth of stream restoration, but demonstrate that questions of worth can be asked and answered. Broader application of economic analysis would provide a defensible basis for understanding restoration benefits and for making restoration decisions.